Based on the behavior of the economy in recent quarters, many Cubans had already assumed that 2023 would close with a decrease in the Gross Domestic Product, and this was confirmed with the official statement that there would be a contraction of between 1 and 2 % at the end of the year.
As reported in the recent 2nd Ordinary Session of the National Assembly of People's Power by Alejandro Gil Fernandez, deputy prime minister and head of the ministry of economy and planning (MEP), due to the limitations in the availability of foreign currency and fuels, it is not possible to achieve the projected growth of 3% of the GDP at constant prices.
It has been a year in which the results of various measures and programs have not materialized for multiple reasons, starting with the US blockade and the inclusion of the Island in the list of States promoting terrorism, along with the rise in prices, international conflicts and internal deficiencies.
In what may have been the most difficult and complex year of the Revolution, all this and its impact on the insufficient acquisition of foreign currency, on macroeconomic imbalances, on the persistence of a large fiscal deficit and growing inflation, was reflected in the shortages of food, medicines and other goods and services for the population.
But it cannot be ignored how, with scarce financial resources, the State tried to guarantee the products of the standard family basket -whose annual cost exceeds 1,600 million dollars-, the generation of electricity, fuels and toiletries, among others.
Unfortunately, there were failures in national production, including agro-industrial production, particularly food production, which meant that the necessary levels were not reached to meet the demands of the population and the country.
According to the head of the MEP, it is estimated that 2023 will end with an inflation rate of 30%, which is accumulated from previous years, while the sustained increase in prices affected the purchasing power of salaries and pensions, one of the main challenges and unresolved problems.
In employment, a 4% decrease in the number of people employed in the economy is expected, for which reason measures will be implemented to halt this trend, some of which were announced before Parliament by Manuel Marrero Cruz, member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba and Prime Minister.
On the other hand, the historical imbalance of the trade balance worsened, there was a drop in export revenues without a significant decrease in imports, and there was no increase and diversification of exports of goods and services.
At the end of 2023 there are 343 active businesses with entrepreneurs from 40 countries, and with presence in all provinces and in the Special Municipality of Isle of Youth, according to Ana Teresita Gonzalez Fraga, first vice minister of foreign trade and foreign investment.
The year ended with 9,652 micro, small and medium-sized private enterprises, 464 non-agricultural cooperatives and more than 576,000 self-employed workers, and although the decision to approve the MSMEs was correct, the fact that many were basically focused on the commercialization of products ready for sale, through the retention of cash and their acquisition in the legal foreign exchange market, was one of the distortions that will have to be corrected.
With a view to this, as from January 2024, the municipal governments will be the ones to promote and approve more economic actors and not from the Ministry of Economy and Planning, as was the case, while the activities to be carried out by the new forms of non-state management will be updated.
Likewise, 66,626 families in vulnerable situations benefited from the delivery of resources, and as part of the policy of not leaving anyone homeless, 59,687 people receive services from the Family Care System. Notwithstanding these indicators, no progress was made in the principle of subsidizing people who require it and not products.
Since last July, the country planned to promote the process of bankarization of transactions, which together with the quality of banking services has not yet had the expected results aimed at collecting the largest amount of cash in circulation, achieving a wide use of electronic payment channels and customer satisfaction.
According to the Prime Minister, solutions of his own are being sought, based on a series of analyses and proposals, consultations with specialists, with the certainty that a group of decisions and working systems is necessary, even though we know that the 2024 scenario will be complex, but there is experience in times of crisis, he stressed before the deputies.
In this regard, Miguel Diaz-Canel, First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of the Republic, pointed out that in a sort of perfect storm, the desire to overcome the adverse situation, the correlation between economic variables, the commitment to preserve social achievements and the very little and sometimes zero availability of foreign currency very often converge.
All this, he said before the Parliament, has been a breeding ground for the taking of non-integral decisions, which cause logical misunderstandings and negative impacts due to their application in unfavorable conditions, which many consider to be the cause of all the problems, without really being the only ones and not even the most determining ones.
Precisely, there is a clear awareness of the weaknesses and inadequacies, whose follow-up and solution are included in the Government Projections aimed at correcting distortions and boosting the economy during 2024.
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