HAVANA, Cuba, Dec 21 (ACN) Cuba plans to continue with a gradual economic and social recovery in 2022, with a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant prices around 4%, Deputy PM and minister of economy and planning, Alejandro Gil Fernandez, informed today at the plenary session of the National Assembly of People's Power.
Gil Fernandez pointed out that this achieves overcoming the falls experienced in 2019 and 2020, although the levels of activity of two years ago are not reached.
He explained that this behavior is mainly supported by the projections of recovery of tourism and its chained activities; in the progressive performance of productive and service activities, such as manufacturing, agriculture, commerce, construction, public health and education, among others.
Among the prioritized objectives of the Economy Plan for the coming period, he mentioned progress in the process of macroeconomic stabilization, in the recovery of the role of the Cuban peso as the core of the financial system and in the rationalization of the prices of products and services, prioritizing those that are more sensitive for the population.
In addition, efforts will be made to stabilize the national electro-energy system; to give priority attention to persons, households and communities in vulnerable situations; to transform the State Entrepreneurial System; and to decentralize responsibilities in terms of greater autonomy in the municipalities, in order to promote territorial development.
The Cuban minister of economy and planning pointed out that exports of goods and services are expected to reach 9.494 billion dollars, while imports are expected to reach the 10.85.
It is projected the arrival of 2,500,000 visitors, which is an average scenario, similar to the amount received in 2010.
Exports of services, he commented, will grow compared to those of the current year, as will exports of goods, with nickel, tobacco, sugar, biopharmaceutical products and supplies to airplanes being the main items to be sold abroad.
The increase in international prices expected for 2022 reduces the country's purchasing capacity, so that, with a level of financing similar to that of 2021, some 200,000 tons less of raw materials and products will be imported, the head informed.
Regarding investments, he pointed out that 58 % will be concentrated in the prioritized sectors of the economy (tourism, cement and steel factories, food, housing program and renewable energy sources).
Related to food production, more than 25 programs (rice, fruits, grains, livestock, among others) are expected to be worked on, requiring an import level of 323 million dollars.
In the case of tourism, the completion of 4,607 new rooms is projected, reaching 84,906 in the state sector; while in housing, 37,959 houses are planned to be completed (15,689 corresponding to the state sector, 8,596 basic housing cells, and 13,674 by own efforts).
Gil Fernandez indicated that investments will also be made for the revival of the railway activity, particularly the modernization of workshops, the repair of railway equipment, and the acquisition of other specialized rail and traction equipment.
In automotive services, he added, there are plans to acquire light equipment and buses as part of the development of the activity.
The Retail Merchant Circulation should register a growth of 14.4 % in relation to the estimate for 2021, he said, and as regards the participation structure, 76.7 % corresponds to the local currency market and 23.3 % to the freely convertible currency ( MLC its Spanish acronym)
With the financial resources registered, it is expected, from a Basic Drug List of 619 drugs, to achieve a coverage of around 90%, which means a reduction of more than 50% of the shortages registered as a monthly average in 2021, the minister announced.
Gil Fernandez also stated that the acquisition of reagents, expendable materials, dispensary production for natural and traditional medicine, technological and diagnostic supplies for monitoring and follow-up of COVID-19 is ensured, fundamentally.
According to the deputy prime minister, work will also be done to improve the budgeted activity in order to make it more efficient, reduce expenses, generate income where possible and improve the quality of public services.
Likewise, a growth in employment of 1.8% is expected, motivated by the strengthening of new economic actors and the implementation of employment and social prevention projects; and an increase in the salary fund of 2% is projected, based on the results of the entrepreneurial system.
With this projection, he stressed, the average salary will amount to 4,012 pesos and productivity to 11,244 pesos per worker, which represents, regarding the 2021 estimate, a growth of the latter of 2.2 % and of the average salary of 2 %, guaranteeing a favorable correlation between both.
In making an assessment of the fulfillment of the plan for the year about to conclude, he said that in the first quarter the national economy decreased by 13.4 % as compared to the same period of the previous year; however, in the second quarter it showed a slight recovery of 7.9 %.
In 2021, he recalled, tensions continued to be present in the economy that prevented the achievement of the planned goal of 6% growth, basically due to the effects of COVID-19, the tightening of the US blockade, the growth of import prices, freight rates and the effects caused by the logistic chains of international maritime transport.
According to Gil Fernandez, it is estimated that by the end of the year, GDP growth at constant prices will be around 2%; even if the expected goal is not achieved, it is favorable to reach a level of economic growth, even if it is moderate.
The Minister referred to the partial dollarization of the economy in the relations between companies and of these with the non-state sector and the deviations from the conception of the monetary order, mainly in relation to retail inflation.
He exposed the accumulated trend of inflation during 2021, which in January was at 44.1 %, with a sustained growth to date, reaching 69.5 % in November, above the forecast by 9.5 % (according to the forecast it should reach 60 %), which is affecting the purchasing power of salaries and pensions.
This indicator, he said, will end the year above the 70 % inflation index.
All efforts are focused on anti-inflationary measures, which basically involve the increase of state offers in Cuban pesos, Gil Fernandez assured.
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