Hurricane season in Cuba will be normal

HAVANA, Cuba, May 18 (acn) The upcoming hurricane season which begins June 1st until November 30th is predicted to be normal to active although Cuba will remain prepared for any contingency.

According to Doctor in Meteorology Sciences, Miriam Teresita Llanes Monteagudo, head of the Prediction Center of the Meteorology Institute, the island will probably not be hit by a hurricane but this does not exclude a tropical depression or storm.

Doctors in Science, Maritza Ballester Perez, Cecilia Gonzalez Pedroso from the Prediction Center and Ramon Perez Suarez from the National Weather Center are predicting the formation of 12 tropical storms in the North Atlantic Area, 7 of which can reach the category of hurricane.

The specialist predicts 8 tropical storms in the Atlantic basin although there is 10 percent of probability that one can originate or intensify in the Caribbean and 50 percent that one would penetrate the Caribbean region.

Llanes Monteagudo also pointed out that the atmospheric circulation from the surface up to 6 kilometers in height during the month of April reflected a pattern associated to the normal climatic conditions.

The majority of the models estimate an evolution towards neutral conditions of the El Niño-South Oscillation (ENOS) in the eastern equatorial Pacific region.

However, there are possibilities of going towards La Niña conditions which is the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters in the second half of the present year, she added.

This means that the superior tropospheric circulation (10 to 12 kilometers) will be a favorable factor in the development and the intensification of the tropical storms in the Atlantic basin which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

It will also contribute to the fact that the waters in the tropical Atlantic region will remain warm.

The main uncertainty of the predictions for the season lies in the evolution that can be presented by the ENOS event during this period which will be seen in an update of the prediction on August 1st according to the source.

The Hurricane Committee of the IV region of the World Meteorological Organization with 191 member states and based in Geneva, Switzerland have announced the names of the hurricanes for the tropical Atlantic.

They are Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gastón, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobías, Virginieand Walter.