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Cuba predicts advance of peak of COVID-19 for next week

HAVANA, Cuba, Apr 27 (ACN) The Cuban Ministry of Public Health ( MINSAP by its Spanish acronym) announced on Sunday in Havana that Cuba could reach the peak of the epidemic in the last week of May, according to calculations by a group of experts including statesmen, biostatisticians, mathematicians, epidemiologists and other professionals.
In an online press conference, broadcast by Cuban Television, Dr. Francisco Duran, national director of epidemiology at MINSAP, explained that the SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) model with three possible scenarios (critical, medium and favorable) is being used.
The expert said that until April 24 they were adjusted to the favorable scenario, however he warned this does not mean that the contention measures are relaxed, nor the social discipline.
The Cuban epidemiologist pointed out that this behavior is associated with survival time, and in the case of Cuba it was based on the epidemic's behavior in 161 countries, 25 of which had reached their peak.
According to this model, Duran explained, Cuba could reach the peak of the epidemic in 77 days from the beginning of the outbreak, which is, in late May with an estimated 1,600 cases admitted in a single day.
However, what has been happening in Cuba during the past few days leads to an advance of the COVID-19 peak date in the country, which is expected next week, ahead of the international average and what was initially expected.
Raul Guinovart Diaz, dean of the Faculty of Mathematics and Computing at the University of Havana, explained to Cubadebate that "the forecast of the blue curve (favorable scenario) now indicates that next week, approximately, we would be at the peak, ahead of the international average.
This is a cautious forecast that will depend on the evolution of the disease in the coming days, he warned.
According to the professor, the first models expressed that the country would have a maximum peak close to 4,500 active patients in a day.
He pointed out that unfortunately on the day the Mesa Redonda TV program was held, the country was moving through the most complicated scenario, but as a result of the measures taken by the government, the curve was turning to a more favorable scenario, which is in the middle zone and very close to the blue area with which they identify the favorable projection.
 According to the magnitude of the epidemic, or in other words, the accumulated number of infected people, the corresponding graph shows that "we will have a minimum of 1,500 cases and a maximum of 2,500.  
 If a greater number of tests are carried out, this figure can be modified, since more information would be available and asymptomatic people would be detected among the population. However, the mathematical modelers do not believe that the critical scenario will be reached.

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