COVID-19 cases in Cuba tend to decline, experts say

 HAVANA, Cuba, Apr 29 (ACN) Unless a new strain begins to spread around the world and reaches Cuba -and it does not seem very likely, for now- and the immunity rates of the population begin to fall -and work is being done to prevent this from happening-, in the coming weeks the level of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 should remain stable -and with a tendency to decline-.

This statement is one of the considerations of the team of experts coordinated by the Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science of the University of Havana, whose dean, PhD Raul Guinovart Diaz, presented the update of the epidemic forecast models for our country.

It was at this week's meeting of the first secretary of the party's Central Committee and president of the country, Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez, and the member of the Politburo and PM, Manuel Marrero Cruz, with experts and scientists for health issues, in which the head of the sector, Jose Angel Portal Miranda, paid tribute to Dr. Juan Vela Valdes, who passed away on Wednesday.

A new estimate of the behavior of COVID-19, with data from March 20 to April 25, indicates that, if the present levels of immunity are maintained, confirmed cases will not exceed 500 (less than 50 % of the maximum reached in recent periods).

Dr. Jose Angel Portal Miranda, minister of public health, gave, among other evaluations, a summary of the behavior of the epidemic in week 16 of 2022 (April 18-23), when transmission decreased by 30.9 % compared to March, with the average number of cases per day dropping to 463.8 versus 671.1.

The highest levels of transmission in April -he reported- have been in Camaguey, Havana, Mayabeque and Ciego de Avila, with 50 % of the diagnosed cases. However, with the exception of the Isle of Youth, which increased the incidence, in week 16 all territories decreased the number of cases compared to the previous one.

Regarding the predominant strains, Omicron, subvariant BA.2, was present in 100 % of the cases studied.